Do hedge funds serve their purpose?

“…Many hedge funds seek to profit in all kinds of markets by pursuing leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss.” – SEC, Hedging your bets: a heads up on hedge funds and funds of hedge funds.

“A hedge fund is an actively managed investment fund that seeks attractive absolute return…. Hedge fund managers are active managers seeking absolute return.” – Robert A. Jaegar, All About Hedge Funds (2003)

“Hedge funds are alternative investments using pooled funds that may use a number of different strategies in order to earn active return, or alpha, for their investors.” – Investopedia

To summarize, the ultimate purpose of hedge fund is to earn attractive return, preferably seeking positive alpha and that’s how the hedge fund managers market their fund – making positive alpha. But are the funds serving this purpose? Do they really make above market returns every year? Have these funds been able to beat the market in the long term, say 5 years, 10 years?

To come up with an answer requires some study since hedge funds are mostly limited partnership and free from all the regulation that mutual funds are subject to, Hence there is limited information about the short/long term performance of the funds.

Morningstar Broad Hedge Fund, which encompasses more than 500 hedge funds serves as a useful index for benchmarking and is also a good estimate of performance of hedge funds. Based on annual return starting 2009 through 2014, the historical rate of return for this index has been 4.3%. At the same time, it has been 10.5% for S&P 500.

Year 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
MBHF 16.46 20.56 1.77 0.14 6.12 11.77
S&P 500 11.39 29.6 13.49 0 12.78 23.45

(Data extracted from Morningstar)

Even when individual years are compared, hedge funds have been able to beat S&P 500 only 2 out of 6 times. So even though investing in the market seems a viable investment compared to hedge fund, still hedge funds are popular and attract investments from accredited investors. The popularity for hedge funds can be associated to these causes: Gains are announced. Out of the many existing hedge funds, there are few standout firms that are earning substantial returns, sometimes even during market turmoil. These are the funds that get media coverages, thereby garnering attention. On the other side, limited regulatory requirement means limited disclosure of information i.e. no need to publicize losses. A decent bet. Hedge fund are essentially a good lottery to bet on. Since its open only for accredited investors, they won’t feel as much financial pain as would a non-accredited investor. On the up side, you have better chance in winning in a hedge fund than in winning a lottery ticket.

In essence, hedge funds do not serve the purpose they are supposed to serve. However, given the limitation of data, it is necessary to further assess this scenario with sufficient data to support this conclusion.

Interstellar and Religion

Switching from the usual’s (Finance), tonight I decided to write something different. What other attractive topic can there be than movies and what other good movies can I write about than one of Nolan’s finest – Interstellar.

Now the title of this writing may come as surprising. Interstellar and religion? Is he smoking pot? How does that connect! Interstellar is pure science, not a single drop of religion!

Is it?

All religion: Hinduism, Buddhism, Christianity and Islam recognizes the concept of ghost and of course God and in Interstellar you certainly get a taste of both. “Friendly Ghost” as described by Murph in the bookshelf or as described by NASA scientist “them”, someone far more capable than human beings (capable of placing a wormhole nearby Saturn), probably signifying God.

However, at the end, we realize that both “Friendly Ghost” and “them” are future generation human beings that have advanced into such capable beings that can use time as a variable that can be altered. Thus the concept of ghost and god is nothing more than future ourselves playing with time dimension.

Nolan presents a compelling theory to explain god and ghost in a subtle way. Not that I am an atheist trying to explain the concepts of religion through science, it’s just an observation, trying to explain a perspective.

Golden formula for investment – it’s a secret!

Is there a formula that can find out whether a security is bullish/bearish thereby generating trade signal of going long or short? Most probably there is! How do I get access to it? You never will. Or even if you do, it will never be the chicken that lays golden eggs.

Why? Efficient market hypothesis – An investment theory that states it is impossible to “beat the market” because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. (Investopedia, n.d.)

Suppose there is an insider information about a company that is exclusively available only to you. What do you do? If the information is positive, you go long and vice versa. Now say that the same information is available to 100 investors. Will you be able to generate same amount of return? NO. Because someone else will bank on it and drive prices up/down, decreasing your return or in some cases you won’t get any return at all because prices already reflect the information.

Same thing goes for an algorithm that you have figured out to generate you returns. If you keep it to yourself, you will earn hefty returns. The moment you leak it out, you are sacrificing your earnings. Or even if you keep it a secret, someone will figure it out as there are plenty of creative brains working day and night trying to figure out on beating the market.

A recent article featured in WSJ talks about how Elements Capital Management LLC is betting on earning handsome returns through arbitrage. If things go as planned, yes it will bring Elements Capital Management and its clients huge return. It might work for other early market entrants looking to follow its footstep. But soon it will become so common that the inefficient becomes the efficient and the arbitrage no longer exist.

Thus if you have the “Golden Formula” that lays golden eggs, keep it a secret. Unless you want to make contribution sacrificing your returns.

The black swan hedge funds – A fund in need?

When non-finance people first read through this title, most of them must have recalled the academy award winning performance of Natalie Portman in Black Swan. Even for finance majors, they might be tempted to find linkage between the movie and hedge funds, like I did when I first came across this term in Wall Street Journal. However, in finance, “A black swan is highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable, it carries a massive index and after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was.” (Taleb, 2007). Although unpredictable, at least in terms of when exactly such event may occur, however, there are funds that can offer protection. And you guessed it right, those are the Black Swan Hedge Funds (BSHFs).

Nasim Taleb first popularized the term “Black Swan” in his book The Black Swan – The Impact of a Highly Improbable, which is a NY Times best seller. The author currently works as an advisor to Universa Investments that sells BSHFs. According to Business Insider, a BSHF suggested by Taleb made a billion dollar last week.

The underlying mechanism of such hedge fund is simple. Buy a put option whose value rises high when the market falls. If the market is stable or increasing, one only pays the price of put option, which is analogous to premium paid to insure against risk. For the inflow of money to the investors,the market has to fall. Eg. 2007/08 Financial Crisis, 2010 Flash Crash. These are times when BSHFs come into limelight as word is spread that certain funds have earned millions of dollar while the rest are losing.

They BSHF can be seen as type of insurance policy to hedge against risk. It basically operates using a person’s emotion of fear and greed. And it is a good bet. It’s a win-win situation for both the parties. The firm gets a hefty fee for its service and the customer is insured against the downfall risk. When the firm is bullish, such firm can utilize public’s emotion of fear. Highlighting the past financial crisis and the amount of money that one can lose when the market turns red, these firms can market itself. It’s even easier when the market is bearish. Firms get a lot of publicity as news about so and so firm making so and so amount of money amid such turmoil. As is the case currently, BSHFs are getting ample coverage that has attracted investors who lost money.

So is it a friend in need? At the moment, yes. With the second largest economy taking a hit, emerging markets slowdown, influential CEO of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, predicting a round of Quantitative easing rather than interest rate hike and a lack of a clear understanding on the Fed’s stand on the interest rate, BSHF seems a viable tool to hold in the short run. However, in the long run, just as the Black Swan events are unpredictable, so is the decision to invest in BSHF. It all depends on one’s personal preference i.e. how much are you willing to pay and till when?

“Black Monday” – what, why and what next?

Trillions of dollars were wiped out from the financial market on Aug 24, 2015. Starting from China, it had its effects on other major markets of Europe, Asia and USA. The Shanghai composite index dropped by 8.5%, the biggest one day percentage fall since 2007, wiping out all the gains for the year. This raised fear of a near recession among the global investors, leading to a global sell off. Here’s what happened in the major economies on Aug. 24:

USA: Dow Jones lost more than 1000 points and ended the day down by 588 points

UK: £74 billion value was wiped off from the FTSE 100 index

Europe: Stock market suffered their worst trading day since 2011

Japan: Nikkei fell off by 4%. (The Guardian 2015)

Meanwhile, China in an effort to save the stock market plunge decided to cut the interest rate and inject liquidity to the banking system by lowering the bank’s reserve requirements. Despite, the move, Shanghai Index fell further by 1.3% the next day. As of now, a slightly bullish trend in most of the major economies can be seen.

Why?

Economist have long been predicting a slump in the Chinese financial market. It was just the question of “when?”. One of the major question of concern was “Is China really growing at a rate of 7%?”. Several prediction expected growth to be lower than that, raising concern on the reliability of the statistics provided by China, thereby indicating a slowing Chinese economy.

The Yuan Devaluation. In a move to put a stop to wiping off of huge amount of money in the financial market in recent months, China decided to devalue the Yuan, the biggest fall since 1994. Although this move was expected to boost the economy and stabilize the stock prices, it backfired. Investors interpreted this as a sign of slowing Chinese economy. It was evident that there was a stock bubble in the securities prices, the question only remained as of when the burst would occur? On Aug.24, when prices began to drop combined with the signal of a weak economy(evident through Yuan devaluation), there was a huge sell off, leading to stock market depreciation, not crash though! China can put in huge amount of money available in its reserves, before the stock market crashes, which might not be a scenario that shall occur anytime soon.

What Next?

The Fed has an important card to play on the interest rate. The much expected rate hikes in September is now a bit less expected following this turmoil. William Dudley, NY Fed Chief and a close ally of Yellen said that the September rate hikes look less likely. But these statement may just be a move to inspire rally in the equity market. Strong economic data from consumer confidence, housing data and the like signal a rate hike would be appropriate in context of United States. But before deciding as such, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has to weigh in on whether to hike interest rate based on strong economic data of US or postpone it for future date to play a more global role in the world economy and also protect the American firms with significant chunk of money coming from overseas.

It is all about wait and watch the Fed’s next move, which is most likely to postpone the rate hike decision to the end of year.